According to ZenithOptimedia’s new Advertising Expenditure Forecasts, global adspend will grow 4.4 percent to reach US$544bn in 2015 and will accelerate to 5.3 percent growth in 2016.
Radio, which contributed 6.6 percent of global adspend in 2014 is expected to shrink to 6.3 percent of the total global adspend by 2017.
The company’s forecasts for each year are above the average annual growth rate for the last 20 years (4.2 percent), and well ahead of the average for the last 10 years (2.8 percent).
Five Asian countries with developed economies and advanced ad markets: Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea are estimated to grow at a slow 1.5 percent in 2014.
But as problems of weakness in the Singapore property market and Australia’s low pricing of key commodity exports recede, the growth in these countries – classified as Advanced Asia – is predicted to pick up to an average of 3.4 percent a year through to 2017.
The rest of Asia – classified as Fast‐track Asia – including China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam is growing extremely rapidly as these countries adopt Western technology and practices, while benefiting from the rapid inflow of funds from investors hoping to tap into this growth.
Fast‐track Asia has grown very strongly, ending 2014 up an estimated 10 percent.
However, the Chinese economy – which accounts for 64 percent adspend in Fast-track Asia – is finally starting to slow and the ad market is slowing down alongside it.
The study expects ad expenditure in Fast-track Asia to grow at an average rate of 9 percent a year between 2014 and 2017, down from 13.5 percent over the last five years.
Chinese adspend is forecast to grow 9.1 percent this year – below the 10.5 percent annual growth it averaged over the past five years, but more than twice the rate of the world as a whole.
Between 2014 and 2017, the Chinese ad market is expected to enjoy an average growth rate of 8.5 percent a year.
In Japan, adspend growth has averaged 2 percent a year for the last five years, and is expected to remain at that rate between 2014 and 2017.
Globally, the internet is still the fastest growing medium, estimated to have grown 18.5 percent 2014, and the reports forecast an average of 14 percent annual growth between 2014 and 2017.
Mobile advertising has established itself as a mainstream advertising product, but is still rapidly expanding and is growing nine times faster than desktop internet.
It is forecast to grow by an average of 39.8 percent a year between 2014 and 2017, driven by the rapid spread of devices and improvements in user experiences.
Global expenditure on mobile advertising is estimated to be US$27.4 billion in 2014.
By 2017 this total is forecast to rise to US$75.0 billion, as it leapfrogs radio, magazines, outdoor and newspapers to become the world’s third‐largest medium.
The fastest‐growing advertising category is online video, thanks to the explosion of mobile video consumption and the spread of internet‐connected devices, such as smart TVs and games consoles.
Smartphones have bigger and better displays, and transmission technologies like 4G are improving connection speeds, making it possible for consumers to watch high‐quality video content wherever and whenever they choose.
It is also an important point for radio stations to ensure presence on mobile apps to make the most of this growth.